Monarchs across the Pacific: the Columbus hypothesis revisited

Abstract

The `Columbus hypothesis' suggests that the annual north-south return migration of Danaus plexippus in North America is a very recently evolved behaviour, less than 200 years old. This hypothesis rests, in part, on an analysis of the 19th century spread of the monarch across the Pacific that assumes a continuous east to west movement and is based predominantly on one publication. We review all the contemporary literature and present new analysis of the data. The movement of the monarch across the Pacific in the second half of the 19th century is best explained by a model which involves no more than three spot introductions, directly or indirectly aided by human movement, followed by natural spread of the monarch across island groups. Contemporary records refer to `boom' and `bust' population cycles on newly settled islands, which may have led to high rates of monarch movement. We see no evidence in the records to suggest an east to west sweep by monarch populations as suggested by the Columbus hypothesis.