Different responses of Ross River virus to climate variability between coastline and inland cities in Queensland, Australia
Tong, Shilu & Hu, Wenbiao (2002) Different responses of Ross River virus to climate variability between coastline and inland cities in Queensland, Australia. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 59(11), pp. 739-744.
Aims: To examine the potential impact of climate variability on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRv)
infection, and to assess the difference in the potential predictors of RRv incidence in coastline and
inland regions, Queensland, Australia.
Methods: Information on the RRv cases notified between 1985 to 1996 was obtained from the
Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology and the Australia Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The function of cross correlations
was used to compute a series of correlations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature,
minimum temperature, relative humidity, and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv
disease over a range of time lags. Time series Poisson regression models were performed to adjust for
the autocorrelations of the monthly incidences of RRv disease and the confounding effects of seasonality,
the case notification time, and population sizes.
Results: The cross correlation function shows rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature,
and relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months and high tide in the current month were significantly associated
with the monthly incidence of RRv in the coastline region. Relative humidity and rainfall at a lag
of two months was also significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv in the inland region.
The results of Poisson regressive models show that the incidence of RRv disease was significantly associated
with rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, and high tide in
the coastline region, and with rainfall and relative humidity in the inland region. There was a significant
interaction between climate variables and locality in RRv transmission.
Conclusions: Climate variability may have played a significant role in the transmission of RRv. There
appeared to be different responses of RRv to climate variability between coastline and inland cities in
Queensland, Australia. Maximum temperature appeared to exhibit a greater impact on the RRv transmission
in coastline than in inland cities. Minimum temperature and relative humidity at 3 pm inland
seemed to affect the RRv transmission more than at the coastline. However, the relation between climate
variables and RRv needs to be viewed within a wider context of other social and environmental factors,
and further research is needed.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)|
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000)
|Divisions:||Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2002 BMJ Publishing Group|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||16 Jan 2008|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 22:54|
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