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Time-series analysis of the risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: comparison of statistical models

Hu, Wenbiao, Mengersen, Kerrie L., Bi, Peng, & Tong, Shilu (2006) Time-series analysis of the risk factors for haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome: comparison of statistical models. Epidemiology and Infection, 135(2), pp. 245-252.

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Abstract

Three conventional regression models were compared using the time-series data of the occurrence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and several key climatic and occupational variables collected in low-lying land, Anhui Province, China. Model I was a linear time series with normally distributed residuals; model II was a generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link; and model III was a generalized additive model with the same distributional features as model II. Model I was fitted using least squares whereas models II and III were fitted using maximum likelihood. The results show that the correlations between the HFRS incidence and the independent variables measured (i.e. difference in water level, autumn crop production and density of Apodemus agrarius) ranged from −0·40 to 0·89. The HFRS incidence was positively associated with density of A. agrarius and crop production, but was inversely associated with difference in water level. The residual analyses and the examination of the accuracy of the models indicate that model III may be the most suitable in the assessment of the relationship between the incidence of HFRS and the independent variables.

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6 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 12065
Item Type: Journal Article
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806006649
ISSN: 0950-2688
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2006 Cambridge University Press
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 17 Jan 2008
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 23:26

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