Using genetic algorithms and linear regression analysis for private housing demand forecast
An accurate prediction of prospective construction supply and demand, especially the private residential market, is paramount important to policy makers, as it could help formulate strategies to cultivate/stabilize the economy and satisfy the social needs (at macro level). Despite that, a realistic prediction of future private residential demand is never an easy task, as it is governed by a number of social and economic factors. In this paper, four leading indicator models are developed and compared for directly forecasting Hong Kong private sector residential demand. These comprise a (i) Linear Regression Analysis (LRA) model; (ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA) model; (iii) GA-LRA model, where LRA is used to select the indicator variables; and (iv) GA-LRA model with Adaptive Mutation Rate (AMR) to reduce the likelihood of local optima. The findings indicate that the GA-LRA model with AMR provides the most accurate forecasts and over a longer time horizon. In providing a range of possible forecasts, the model also provides an opportunity for the decision-maker to exercise judgment in selecting the most appropriate forecasts.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Construction safety, safety management system, safety performance evaluation|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Building Construction Management and Project Planning (120201)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2008 Elsevier|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||01 May 2008|
|Last Modified:||29 Feb 2012 23:45|
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