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Eliciting Expert Knowledge for Bayesian Logistic Regression in Species Habitat Modelling

Kynn, Mary (2005) Eliciting Expert Knowledge for Bayesian Logistic Regression in Species Habitat Modelling. PhD thesis, Queensland University of Technology.

Abstract

This research aims to develop a process for eliciting expert knowledge and incorporating this knowledge as prior distributions for a Bayesian logistic regression model. This work was motivated by the need for less data reliant methods of modelling species habitat distributions. A comprehensive review of the research from both cognitive psychology and the statistical literature provided specific recommendations for the creation of an elicitation scheme. These were incorporated into the design of a Bayesian logistic regression model and accompanying elicitation scheme. This model and scheme were then implemented as interactive, graphical software called ELICITOR created within the BlackBox Component Pascal environment. This software was specifically written to be compatible with existing Bayesian analysis software, winBUGS as an odd-on component. The model, elicitation scheme and software were evaluated through five case studies of various fauna and flora species. For two of these there were sufficient data for a comparison of expert and data-driven models. The case studies confirmed that expert knowledge can be quantified and formally incorporated into a logistic regression model. Finally, they provide a basis for a thorough discussion of the model, scheme and software extensions and lead to recommendations for elicitation research.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 16041
Item Type: QUT Thesis (PhD)
Supervisor: Pettitt, Anthony& Low Choy, Samantha
Keywords: Bayesian statistics, component software, elicit, expert knowledge, informative prior, logistic regression, presence absence models, prior, species habitat models
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Department: Faculty of Science
Institution: Queensland University of Technology
Copyright Owner: Copyright Mary Kynn
Deposited On: 03 Dec 2008 13:55
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2011 05:42

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