Stochastic modelling of financial processes with memory and semiheavy tails
Pesee, Chatchai (2005) Stochastic modelling of financial processes with memory and semiheavy tails. PhD thesis, Queensland University of Technology.

Chatchai Pesee Thesis (PDF 1MB) 
Abstract
This PhD thesis aims to study financial processes which have semiheavytailed marginal distributions and may exhibit memory. The traditional BlackScholes model is expanded to incorporate memory via an integral operator, resulting in a class of market models which still preserve the completeness and arbitragefree conditions needed for replication of contingent claims. This approach is used to estimate the implied volatility of the resulting model. The first part of the thesis investigates the semiheavytailed behaviour of financial processes. We treat these processes as continuoustime random walks characterised by a transition probability density governed by a fractional Riesz Bessel equation. This equation extends the Feller fractional heat equation which generates astable processes. These latter processes have heavy tails, while those processes generated by the fractional RieszBessel equation have semiheavy tails, which are more suitable to model financial data. We propose a quasilikelihood method to estimate the parameters of the fractional Riesz Bessel equation based on the empirical characteristic function. The second part considers a dynamic model of complete financial markets in which the prices of European calls and puts are given by the BlackScholes formula. The model has memory and can distinguish between historical volatility and implied volatility. A new method is then provided to estimate the implied volatility from the model. The third part of the thesis considers the problem of classification of financial markets using highfrequency data. The classification is based on the measure representation of highfrequency data, which is then modelled as a recurrent iterated function system. The new methodology developed is applied to some stock prices, stock indices, foreign exchange rates and other financial time series of some major markets. In particular, the models and techniques are used to analyse the SET index, the SET50 index and the MAI index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
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ID Code:  16057 

Item Type:  QUT Thesis (PhD) 
Supervisor:  Anh, Vo & Kozan, Erhan 
Keywords:  Alpha stable distribution, L´evy distribution, the Feller fractional heat equation, the RieszBessel distribution, volatility, the AnhInoue model, the tick test, recurrent iterated function systems, memory, semiheavy tails, longrange dependence, fractional Brownian motion 
Divisions:  Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences 
Department:  Faculty of Science 
Institution:  Queensland University of Technology 
Deposited On:  03 Dec 2008 03:55 
Last Modified:  10 Apr 2015 01:50 
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