QUT ePrints

Evaluating the informational efficiency of Australian electricity spot markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks

Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew C. (2003) Evaluating the informational efficiency of Australian electricity spot markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks. Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 13(1), pp. 1-16.

Abstract

This paper examines whether Australian electricity spot prices follow a random walk. Daily peak and off-peak (base load) prices for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia are sampled over the period July 1999 to June 2001 and analysed using multiple variance ratio tests. The results indicate that the null hypothesis of a random walk can be rejected in all peak period and most off-period markets because of the autocorrelation of returns. For the Victorian market, the off-peak period electricity spot price follows a random walk. One implication of the study is that in most instances, stochastic autoregressive modelling techniques may be adequate for forecasting electricity prices.

Impact and interest:

2 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

1,041 since deposited on 15 Nov 2005
225 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloadsdisplays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 2528
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Electricity, multiple variance ratio tests, random walks
ISSN: 0970-3888
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ECONOMICS (140000) > APPLIED ECONOMICS (140200) > Environment and Resource Economics (140205)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > QUT Business School
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2003 Tata Energy Research Institute
Deposited On: 15 Nov 2005
Last Modified: 05 Jan 2011 23:25

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page