Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

CRC Construction Innovation (2005) Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction. CRC for Construction Innovation, Brisbane.



Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

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ID Code: 27085
Item Type: Report
Refereed: No
Keywords: CRC for Construction Innovation, Program C : Delivery Management of Built Assets , Project 2003-029-C : Maintenance Cost Prediction for Roads
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > CRC Construction Innovation
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2005 Icon.Net Pty Ltd
Copyright Statement: The Participants of the CRC for Construction Innovation have delegated authority to the CEO of the CRC to give Participants permission to publish material created by the CRC for Construction Innovation. This delegation is contained in Clause 30 of the Agreement for the Establishment and Operation of the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The CEO of the CRC for Construction Innovation gives permission to the Queensland University of Technology to publish the papers/publications provided in the collection in QUT ePrints provided that the publications are published in full. Icon.Net Pty Ltd retains copyright to the publications. Any other usage is prohibited without the express permission of the CEO of the CRC. The CRC warrants that Icon.Net Pty Ltd holds copyright to all papers/reports/publications produced by the CRC for Construction Innovation.
Deposited On: 27 Aug 2009 02:47
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 13:59

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