Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

Piyatrapoomi , N, Kumar, Arun, & Weligamage, Justin (2005) Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. In 4th International Conference on Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Pavements and Technological Control, 18–20 August 2005, Ulster, Northern Ireland..


An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

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ID Code: 27200
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: CRC for Construction Innovation, Program C : Delivery Management of Built Assets , Project 2003-029-C : Maintenance Cost Prediction for Roads
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2005 Icon.Net Pty Ltd
Copyright Statement: The Participants of the CRC for Construction Innovation have delegated authority to the CEO of the CRC to give Participants permission to publish material created by the CRC for Construction Innovation. This delegation is contained in Clause 30 of the Agreement for the Establishment and Operation of the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The CEO of the CRC for Construction Innovation gives permission to the Queensland University of Technology to publish the papers/publications provided in the collection in QUT ePrints provided that the publications are published in full. Icon.Net Pty Ltd retains copyright to the publications. Any other usage is prohibited without the express permission of the CEO of the CRC. The CRC warrants that Icon.Net Pty Ltd holds copyright to all papers/reports/publications produced by the CRC for Construction Innovation.
Deposited On: 02 Sep 2009 23:51
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2011 18:14

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