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Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Schluter, Philip J., Cameron, Cate M., Davey, Tamzyn M., Civil, Ian, Orchard, Jodie, Dansey, Rangi, Hamill, James, Naylor, Helen, James, Carolyn, Dorrian, Jenny, Christey, Grant, Pollard, Cliff, & McClure, Rod J. (2009) Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand. The New Zealand Medical Journal: Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association, 122(1302).

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Abstract

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

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ID Code: 28084
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: Tamzyn Davey is currently employed by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland, Queensland University of Technology.
ISSN: 1175 8716
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > OTHER MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (119900)
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 New Zealand Medical Association
Deposited On: 27 Nov 2009 09:59
Last Modified: 02 Feb 2012 19:21

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