Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Tan, Andy, Heng, Aiwina Soong Yin, & Mathew, Joseph (2009) Condition-based prognosis of machine health. In Proceedings of the 13th Asia-Pacific Vibration Conference, University of Canterbury, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, pp. 1-10.

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Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

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ID Code: 30293
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Condition-based Maintenance, Prognostics, Reliability
ISBN: 9780473160500
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MECHANICAL ENGINEERING (091300) > Mechanical Engineering not elsewhere classified (091399)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MECHANICAL ENGINEERING (091300) > Automation and Control Engineering (091302)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Engineering Systems
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 Please consult the authors.
Deposited On: 29 Aug 2011 22:02
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 13:59

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