What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Barnett, Adrian G., Tong, Shilu, & Clements, Archie (2010) What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environmental Research, 110(6), pp. 604-611.

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Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987–2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

Impact and interest:

117 citations in Scopus
106 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 32563
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Climate, Mortality, Weather, Temperature, Apparent temperature, Humidex
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006
ISSN: 0013-9351
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2010 Elsevier
Deposited On: 21 Jul 2010 21:50
Last Modified: 29 Feb 2012 14:17

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