Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grains
BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Additional Information:||Published online 16 Aug 2010|
|Keywords:||Grains, Stored product pests, Heterogeneity, Sampling, Probability of detection|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES (070000) > CROP AND PASTURE PRODUCTION (070300) > Crop and Pasture Protection (Pests Diseases and Weeds) (070308)|
|Divisions:||Past > Schools > Biogeoscience
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2010 John Wiley|
|Deposited On:||06 Oct 2010 04:12|
|Last Modified:||29 Feb 2012 14:21|
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