Evaluation of risk factors leading to cost overrun in delivery of highway construction projects

Creedy, Garry D., Skitmore, Martin, & Wong, Johnny K.W. (2010) Evaluation of risk factors leading to cost overrun in delivery of highway construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(5), pp. 528-536.

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Accurate owner budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for highway construction projects. However, transportation projects have historically experienced significant construction cost overruns from the time the decision to build has been taken by the owner. This paper addresses the problem of why highway projects overrun their predicted costs. It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographics location, and project delivery method. The research results indicate a correlation between the reciprocal of project budgets size and percentage cost overrun. This can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build highway budget estimates by taking into account the economies of scale associated with larger projects.

Impact and interest:

33 citations in Scopus
19 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 37745
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Construction Management, Cost Estimates, Cost Overrun, Highway Construction, Risk Management
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000160
ISSN: 0733-9364
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2010 American Society of Civil Engineers
Deposited On: 06 Oct 2010 21:51
Last Modified: 01 Mar 2012 01:27

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