Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences
Pielke, Roger A. & Conant, Richard T. (2003) Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences. Ecology, 84(6), pp. 1351-1358.
Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Divisions:||Past > Institutes > Institute for Sustainable Resources|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2003 Ecological Society of America|
|Deposited On:||07 Oct 2010 22:33|
|Last Modified:||25 Mar 2015 02:32|
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