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A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Ye, Xin, Pendyala, Ram, Washington, Simon, Konduri, Karthik, & Oh, Jutaek (2009) A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections. Safety Science, 47(3), pp. 443-452.

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Abstract

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Impact and interest:

35 citations in Scopus
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31 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 38174
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Intersection safety, Crash frequency, Collision type, Simultaneous equations model, Multivariate Poisson regression, Unobserved heterogeneity
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.06.007
ISSN: 0925-7535
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MECHANICAL ENGINEERING (091300)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
Deposited On: 28 Oct 2010 13:47
Last Modified: 01 Mar 2012 00:18

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