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Using decision trees in economizer repair decision making

Sun, Yong, Ma, Lin, Robinson, Warwick, & Fidge, Colin J. (2010) Using decision trees in economizer repair decision making. In Pecht, M. (Ed.) Prognostics and System Health Management Conference, 2010 (PHM '10), IEEE, University of Macau, China, pp. 1-6.

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    Abstract

    The economiser is a critical component for efficient operation of coal-fired power stations. It consists of a large system of water-filled tubes which extract heat from the exhaust gases. When it fails, usually due to erosion causing a leak, the entire power station must be shut down to effect repairs. Not only are such repairs highly expensive, but the overall repair costs are significantly affected by fluctuations in electricity market prices, due to revenue lost during the outage. As a result, decisions about when to repair an economiser can alter the repair costs by millions of dollars. Therefore, economiser repair decisions are critical and must be optimised. However, making optimal repair decisions is difficult because economiser leaks are a type of interactive failure. If left unfixed, a leak in a tube can cause additional leaks in adjacent tubes which will need more time to repair. In addition, when choosing repair times, one also needs to consider a number of other uncertain inputs such as future electricity market prices and demands. Although many different decision models and methodologies have been developed, an effective decision-making method specifically for economiser repairs has yet to be defined. In this paper, we describe a Decision Tree based method to meet this need. An industrial case study is presented to demonstrate the application of our method.

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    ID Code: 39055
    Item Type: Conference Paper
    Keywords: Boilers, Costing, Decision Making, Decision Trees, Electric Generators, Maintenance Engineering, Steam Plants
    DOI: 10.1109/PHM.2010.5414571
    ISBN: 9781424447565
    Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Infrastructure Engineering and Asset Management (090505)
    Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > INTERDISCIPLINARY ENGINEERING (091500) > Risk Engineering (excl. Earthquake Engineering) (091507)
    Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > OTHER ENGINEERING (099900) > Engineering not elsewhere classified (099999)
    Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Curriculum
    Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
    Past > Schools > School of Engineering Systems
    Copyright Owner: Copyright 2010 IEEE
    Copyright Statement: Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.
    Deposited On: 08 Dec 2010 11:25
    Last Modified: 25 Mar 2013 18:11

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