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The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

Hu, Wenbiao, Mengersen, Kerrie, Fu, Shiu-Yun, & Tong, Shilu (2010) The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables. International Journal of Biometeorology, 54(4), pp. 433-450.

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Abstract

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Impact and interest:

3 citations in Scopus
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3 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 39056
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Cryptosporidiosis, CART, Time series, Weather, Zip
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-009-0294-4
ISSN: 0020-7128
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Deposited On: 07 Dec 2010 13:54
Last Modified: 01 Mar 2012 00:15

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