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Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

Hu, W., Clements, A., Williams, G., Tong, S., & Mengersen, K. (2010) Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 83(3), p. 722.

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Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Impact and interest:

8 citations in Scopus
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9 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 39654
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Ross River Virus, Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis, Socio-Ecologic Drivers, Queensland
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0551
ISSN: 0002-9637
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Deposited On: 24 Jan 2011 11:07
Last Modified: 14 Aug 2012 15:55

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