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Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

Albert, Isabelle, Donnet, Sophie, Guihenneuc, Chantal, Low Choy, Samantha, Mengersen, Kerrie L., & Rousseau, Judith (2010) Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation. Biostatistics. (Submitted (not yet accepted for publication))

Abstract

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

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ID Code: 40812
Item Type: Other
Keywords: Bayesian statistics, expert opinions, hierarchical model, random effects, prior elicitation
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Biostatistics (010402)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2010 please consult authors
Deposited On: 21 Mar 2011 08:33
Last Modified: 03 Sep 2012 09:02

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