Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling
Skitmore, Martin (2001) Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling. Financial Management of Property and Construction, 6(3), pp. 141-154.
A method is proposed for the empirical derivation of Raftery Curve probabilities from forecasted/actual value ratios. The method is applied to a set of Hong Kong construction contract data. Using the error of predicted ratios as the measure of opportunity cost, it is then shown how the method may be used to identify the best data poolings amongst subsets.
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Raftery Curves, tender price forecasts, empirical probabilities, data pooling, Hong Kong construction contracts|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2001 School of the Built and Natural Environment, University of Glasgow|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||16 May 2006 00:00|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 12:32|
Repository Staff Only: item control page