Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling

Skitmore, Martin (2001) Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling. Financial Management of Property and Construction, 6(3), pp. 141-154.


A method is proposed for the empirical derivation of Raftery Curve probabilities from forecasted/actual value ratios. The method is applied to a set of Hong Kong construction contract data. Using the error of predicted ratios as the measure of opportunity cost, it is then shown how the method may be used to identify the best data poolings amongst subsets.

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333 since deposited on 16 May 2006
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ID Code: 4118
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Raftery Curves, tender price forecasts, empirical probabilities, data pooling, Hong Kong construction contracts
ISSN: 1363-2175
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2001 School of the Built and Natural Environment, University of Glasgow
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 16 May 2006 00:00
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 12:32

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