Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling
Skitmore, Martin (2001) Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling. Financial Management of Property and Construction, 6(3), pp. 141-154.
A method is proposed for the empirical derivation of Raftery Curve probabilities from forecasted/actual value ratios. The method is applied to a set of Hong Kong construction contract data. Using the error of predicted ratios as the measure of opportunity cost, it is then shown how the method may be used to identify the best data poolings amongst subsets.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Raftery Curves, tender price forecasts, empirical probabilities, data pooling, Hong Kong construction contracts|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2001 School of the Built and Natural Environment, University of Glasgow|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||16 May 2006|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 22:32|
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