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Raftery curve construction for tender price forecasts

Skitmore, Martin (2002) Raftery curve construction for tender price forecasts. Construction Management and Economics, 20(1), pp. 83-89.

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Abstract

Raftery (1993) has suggested that project cost estimates be presented in the form of cumulative probability functions (termed here 'Raftery Curves') rather than the current practice of single point estimates. This paper describes a method for the empirical construction of the Raftery Curves for tender price forecasts. This is applied to ten previously published data sets gathered throughout the world. In comparing the resulting curves, the most consistent feature is shown to be the shift associated with to the number of bidders entering bids for contracts. This is examined both in terms of bias and consistency. Contrary to some previous studies, no evidence was found of any trends related to the value size of projects.

Impact and interest:

8 citations in Scopus
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ID Code: 4142
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Cost, time, forecasting, probability, bidders, range estimates
DOI: 10.1080/01446190110093551
ISSN: 1466-433X
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Building Construction Management and Project Planning (120201)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2002 Taylor & Francis
Copyright Statement: First published in Construction Management and Economics 20(1):pp. 83-89.
Deposited On: 16 May 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:32

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