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Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Yu, Weiwei, Mengersen, Kerrie L., Hu, Wenbiao, Guo, Yuming, Pan, Xiaochuan, & Tong, Shilu (2011) Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories. Environmental Pollution, 159(7), pp. 1789-1793.

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Abstract

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

Impact and interest:

13 citations in Scopus
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12 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 41804
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Cardiovascular deaths, Lag structure, Mortality, Temperature, The elderly
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039
ISSN: 0269-7491
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (111705)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Preventive Medicine (111716)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Past > Schools > Mathematical Sciences
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Copyright Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Pollution. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Pollution, [Volume 159, Issue 7, (July 2011)] DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2011.03.039
Deposited On: 15 Jun 2011 08:02
Last Modified: 13 Sep 2013 04:37

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