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A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Tonelli, Marcello, Cowley, Mervyn, & Boyd, Terence (2004) A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth. In Proceedings of Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Pacific Rim Real Estate Society, Windsor Suite Hotel, Bangkok.

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Abstract

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

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ID Code: 41907
Item Type: Conference Paper
Keywords: Forecasting, Office Rents, System Dynamics, Econometric Modelling, Simulation
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING (120500) > Community Planning (120501)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2004 [please consult the authors]
Deposited On: 07 Jun 2011 09:32
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2011 06:13

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