Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia

Yu, Weiwei, Hu, Wenbiao, Mengersen, Kerrie L., Guo, Yuming, Pan, Xiaochuan, Connell, Des, & Tong, Shilu (2011) Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia. Heart, 97(13), pp. 1089-1093.

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To quantify the lagged effects of mean temperature on deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Brisbane, Australia.


Polynomial distributed lag models were used to assess the percentage increase in mortality up to 30 days associated with an increase (or decrease) of 1°C above (or below) the threshold temperature.


Brisbane, Australia.


22 805 cardiovascular deaths registered between 1996 and 2004.

Main outcome

measures Deaths from cardiovascular diseases.


The results show a longer lagged effect in cold days and a shorter lagged effect in hot days. For the hot effect, a statistically significant association was observed only for lag 0–1 days. The percentage increase in mortality was found to be 3.7% (95% CI 0.4% to 7.1%) for people aged ≥65 years and 3.5% (95% CI 0.4% to 6.7%) for all ages associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature of 24°C. For the cold effect, a significant effect of temperature was found for 10–15 lag days. The percentage estimates for older people and all ages were 3.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 5.7%) and 2.8% (95% CI 0.5% to 5.1%), respectively, with a decrease of 1°C below the threshold temperature of 24°C.


The lagged effects lasted longer for cold temperatures but were apparently shorter for hot temperatures. There was no substantial difference in the lag effect of temperature on mortality between all ages and those aged ≥65 years in Brisbane, Australia.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 41969
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases, Temperature, Climate change, Mortality
DOI: 10.1136/hrt.2010.217166
ISSN: 1355-6037
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > CARDIOVASCULAR MEDICINE AND HAEMATOLOGY (110200) > Cardiology (incl. Cardiovascular Diseases) (110201)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (111705)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Teacher Education & Leadership
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 BMJ Group
Deposited On: 14 Jun 2011 21:56
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2017 00:45

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