Bidding models: testing the stationarity assumption
With notably few exceptions, bidding models contain probability distributions with parameters that are assumed to be fixed, or stationary, over time. Some methods of method of testing the tenability of this assumption are examined and applied to eight datasets. Of particular interest is the statistical significance of two types of periodicity; (1) that bidders gradually reduce their bids prior to winning a contract and (2) that bidders have periods in which they are more competitive and periods in which they are less competitive. To test (1), McCaffer and Pettitt’s (1976) cusum method is used and shown to have a limited interpretation in this context. McCaffer’s ‘deficit’ statistic is then used in conjunction with a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and shows (1) to be untenable for the samples involved. To test (2), the deficit statistic is again used with an ANOVA to examine all possible sub series of bids.
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Bidding, behaviour, parameters, cusum method, deficit statistic|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > TECHNOLOGY (100000)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Past > Schools > School of Urban Development
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2006 Taylor & Francis|
|Copyright Statement:||First published in Construction Management and Economics 24(8):pp. 791-803.|
|Deposited On:||18 May 2006|
|Last Modified:||29 Feb 2012 13:20|
Repository Staff Only: item control page