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Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

Tran, Van , Yang, Bo-Suk , & Tan, Andy (2009) Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(5), pp. 9378-9387.

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Abstract

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Impact and interest:

37 citations in Scopus
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25 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 42689
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Machine Fault Prognosis, Long-term Time Series Prediction, ANFIS, CART, Direct Prediction Methodology
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2009.01.007
ISSN: 0957-4174
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > APPLIED MATHEMATICS (010200)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND IMAGE PROCESSING (080100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES (080000) > INFORMATION SYSTEMS (080600)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Deposited On: 13 Jul 2011 23:06
Last Modified: 03 Dec 2012 12:08

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