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Parameter prediction for cash flow forecasting models

Skitmore, Martin (1992) Parameter prediction for cash flow forecasting models. Construction Management and Economics, 10(5), pp. 397-413.

Abstract

The paper describes the application of the DHSS formula to 27 completed construction projects comprising four types - steel-framed low rise buildings, new build housing developments, housing refurbishment projects, and multi-house 'pre-paint' maintenance contracts. Application of the formula to individual projects indicates that the 'best' parameter values offer a ten fold improvement over the published values based on project size. Similar results occur when using the best parameter values for other two parameter models.

Various approaches are considered in attempting to predict the best parameter values of the models based on known characteristics of the project. A multiple linear regression with project value, duration, and type independent variables is shown not to produce any significant improvement on standard DHSS formula predictions. However, a reduction in the number of independent variables by cross validation produces an approximately twenty five percent improvement on standard DHSS formula forecasts outside the data base. Examination of the models derived from this analysis indicate the type of project to be of major importance.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 4409
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Cash flow, forecasts, project type, regression, cross validation
ISSN: 1466-433X
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1992 Taylor & Francis
Copyright Statement: First published in Construction Management and Economics 10(5):pp. 397-413.
Deposited On: 05 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:32

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