QUT ePrints

Models of UK private sector quarterly construction demand

Akintoye, Akintola S. & Skitmore, Martin (1994) Models of UK private sector quarterly construction demand. Construction Management and Economics, 12(1), pp. 3-13.

View at publisher

Abstract

An analysis is made of private sector construction demand (quarterly new orders) grouped into housing, commercial and industrial construction respectively, and their relationship with a priori selected leading indicators of GNP, price level, real interest rate, unemployment and manufacturing profitability over the period 1974 to 1988. The results indicate that different variables explain the trends in these private sector construction demand sub-sectors. While construction price appeared to be an important elastic influence in housing investment, it was not found to be an important factor in respect to commercial and industrial construction. Trends in commercial and industrial constructions are explained by manufacturing profitability and economic conditions. The level of unemployment influences commercial construction only and with a negative inelastic relationship. Lead indicator forecasts of the groupings of private sector investment are above 10 percent of accuracy due to the unusual deep cut in private construction as a result of the recession although the models except increasing trends in these series. The implication of this level of accuracy is the need to investigate further variables for inclusion in the models to track the cut in private sectorial construction demand. This work is currently being undertaken at the University of Salford through the financial support of the Science and Engineering Research Council.

Impact and interest:

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

1,102 since deposited on 05 Jun 2006
105 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloadsdisplays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 4415
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Construction demand, private sector, price, unemployment, GNP, interest rate, forecasting
DOI: 10.1080/01446199400000002
ISSN: 1466-433X
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1994 Taylor & Francis
Copyright Statement: First published in Construction Management and Economics 12(1):pp. 3-13.
Deposited On: 05 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:32

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page