QUT ePrints

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Guo, Yuming, Barnett, Adrian G., Pan, Xiaochuan, Yu, Weiwei, & Tong, Shilu (2011) The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, pp. 1719-1725.

View at publisher (open access)

Abstract

Background

There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality.

Objectives

To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory).

Results

A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature.

Conclusions

In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Impact and interest:

45 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™
40 citations in Web of Science®

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

423 since deposited on 24 Aug 2011
192 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloadsdisplays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 44176
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Case−crossover, Distributed lag non-linear model, Mortality, Temperature
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103598
ISSN: 0091-6765
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Biostatistics (010402)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (111705)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services * National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Deposited On: 25 Aug 2011 09:45
Last Modified: 18 Jul 2014 18:30

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page