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Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Huang, Cunrui, Barnett, Adrian G., Wang, Xiaoming, Vaneckova, Pavla, FitzGerald, Gerard, & Tong, Shilu (2011) Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review. Environmental Health Perspectives.

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Abstract

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios.

Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010.

Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement.

Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Impact and interest:

23 citations in Scopus
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16 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 44211
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Climate Change, Heat Wave, Mortality, Projection, Public Health, Scenario
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103456
ISSN: 0091-6765
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (050000) > ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT (050200) > Environmental Impact Assessment (050204)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (111705)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY (160000) > POLICY AND ADMINISTRATION (160500) > Health Policy (160508)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Copyright Statement: Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives
Deposited On: 26 Aug 2011 09:27
Last Modified: 26 Aug 2011 09:29

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