Macro models of UK construction contract prices
This paper describes the derivation of macro construction contract price models that are based on the economic theory of demand and supply using OLS multiple regression analysis.
A structural equation model is presented which offers a structural explanation of the movements in the construction tender price index. Leading indicators of contract prices (in real terms) produced by the structural equations were unemployment level, real interest rate, manufacturing profitability, number of registered construction firms, building cost index, construction productivity and construction work stoppages. The equation produced an adjusted R2 of 0.97 for deflated data with minimal serial autocorrelation.
A predictive reduced-form model is also developed that utilises simultaneous equation models comprising construction demand, supply and equilibrium models.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Construction contract price, statistical models, construction demand, construction supply|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)|
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 1993 Taylor & Francis|
|Copyright Statement:||First published in Civil Engineering Systems 10(4):pp. 279-299.|
|Deposited On:||09 Jun 2006|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 22:32|
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