Macro models of UK construction contract prices

Akintoye, Akintola S. & Skitmore, Martin (1993) Macro models of UK construction contract prices. Civil Engineering Systems, 10(4), pp. 279-299.


This paper describes the derivation of macro construction contract price models that are based on the economic theory of demand and supply using OLS multiple regression analysis.

A structural equation model is presented which offers a structural explanation of the movements in the construction tender price index. Leading indicators of contract prices (in real terms) produced by the structural equations were unemployment level, real interest rate, manufacturing profitability, number of registered construction firms, building cost index, construction productivity and construction work stoppages. The equation produced an adjusted R2 of 0.97 for deflated data with minimal serial autocorrelation.

A predictive reduced-form model is also developed that utilises simultaneous equation models comprising construction demand, supply and equilibrium models.

Impact and interest:

7 citations in Scopus
1 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 4427
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Construction contract price, statistical models, construction demand, construction supply
ISSN: 1029-0249
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1993 Taylor & Francis
Copyright Statement: First published in Civil Engineering Systems 10(4):pp. 279-299.
Deposited On: 09 Jun 2006 00:00
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 12:32

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