Macro models of UK construction contract prices
This paper describes the derivation of macro construction contract price models that are based on the economic theory of demand and supply using OLS multiple regression analysis.
A structural equation model is presented which offers a structural explanation of the movements in the construction tender price index. Leading indicators of contract prices (in real terms) produced by the structural equations were unemployment level, real interest rate, manufacturing profitability, number of registered construction firms, building cost index, construction productivity and construction work stoppages. The equation produced an adjusted R2 of 0.97 for deflated data with minimal serial autocorrelation.
A predictive reduced-form model is also developed that utilises simultaneous equation models comprising construction demand, supply and equilibrium models.
Impact and interest:
Citation counts are sourced monthly from and citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
Full-text downloads displays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Keywords:||Construction contract price, statistical models, construction demand, construction supply|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 1993 Taylor & Francis|
|Copyright Statement:||First published in Civil Engineering Systems 10(4):pp. 279-299.|
|Deposited On:||09 Jun 2006 00:00|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 12:32|
Repository Staff Only: item control page