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Building contract price forecasting: price intensity theory

Gunner, John C. & Skitmore, Martin (1999) Building contract price forecasting: price intensity theory. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 6(3), pp. 267-275.

Abstract

A theory of contract price forecasting bias is proposed based on the heuristic bias framework and with reference to the common practice of basing building price forecasts on the price per square metre of floor area or Price Intensity (PI). The main prediction of the theory, that high PI contracts will be underestimated and low PI contracts will be overestimated, is tested by a reanalysis of Singapore data and in comparison with previous work. It is concluded that PI theory may be necessary and sufficient to explain all systematic biases in contract price forecasts.

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ID Code: 4432
Item Type: Journal Article
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Price Intensity Theory, judgement bias, building contracts, price forecasts
ISSN: 0969-9988
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > TECHNOLOGY (100000)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1999 Emerald Publishing
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 16 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:32

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