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A method for forecasting owner monthly construction project expenditure flow

Skitmore, Martin (1998) A method for forecasting owner monthly construction project expenditure flow. International Journal of Forecasting, 14(1), pp. 17-34.

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Abstract

Under the normal conditions of construction contracts, the client is obliged to pay the contractor in monthly instalments. The amount of each instalment is based on the value of construction work actually produced in the previous month and forecasts are needed in advance of the likely value of these payments. A database of previously completed contracts and payments made is available.

A method for forecasting the value of these instalments is described. This method utilises three approaches, termed (1) analytic, (2) synthetic, (3) hybrid, in combination with six alternative models comprising (1) Hudson, (2) Kenley-Wilson, (3) Berny-Howes, (4) cumulative logistic, (5) cumulative normal, and (6) cumulative lognormal. The forecasts produced by each of these are then subject to a cross-validation analysis to determine the best approach/model combination for the available database and hence forecasts for future expenditure flows.

An example is provided for an actual 27 construction project database.

Impact and interest:

10 citations in Scopus
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5 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 4433
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Construction contracts, expenditure flow models, forecasting system, regression model, cross validation, time series
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00042-3
ISSN: 0169-2070
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1998 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
Deposited On: 09 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:32

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