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Expenditure Flow Forecasting Models

Skitmore, Martin (1993) Expenditure Flow Forecasting Models. In Economic Evaluation and the Built Environment : Economic Evaluation in Planning and Design, The International Council for Building Research Studies and Documentation CIB W-55 and 95, 6-10 September 1993, Lisbon, Portugal.

Abstract

The situation is considered where a target contract has commenced, some interim valuations of progress have been made, and estimates of future interim valuations are needed. Three approaches are examined - (1) analytic, (2) synthetic, and (3) hybrid. Using six 2 parameter models - (1) DHSS, (2) Kenley-Wilson, (3) Berny-Howes, (4) cumulative logistic, (5) cumulative normal, and (6) cumulative lognormal - it is shown that, with the data used, that the best hybrid models produced the most accurate ex-ante expenditure flow forecasts from 10 to 90 percent contract duration and all the hybrid models produced the most accurate ex-ante expenditure flow forecasts from 10 to 50 percent contract duration.

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ID Code: 4535
Item Type: Conference Paper
Keywords: Expenditure flow models, forecasts, non, linear regression, cross validation
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1993 (please consult author)
Deposited On: 21 Jun 2006
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 22:33

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