Expenditure Flow Forecasting Models
Skitmore, Martin (1993) Expenditure Flow Forecasting Models. In Economic Evaluation and the Built Environment : Economic Evaluation in Planning and Design, The International Council for Building Research Studies and Documentation CIB W-55 and 95, 6-10 September 1993, Lisbon, Portugal.
The situation is considered where a target contract has commenced, some interim valuations of progress have been made, and estimates of future interim valuations are needed. Three approaches are examined - (1) analytic, (2) synthetic, and (3) hybrid. Using six 2 parameter models - (1) DHSS, (2) Kenley-Wilson, (3) Berny-Howes, (4) cumulative logistic, (5) cumulative normal, and (6) cumulative lognormal - it is shown that, with the data used, that the best hybrid models produced the most accurate ex-ante expenditure flow forecasts from 10 to 90 percent contract duration and all the hybrid models produced the most accurate ex-ante expenditure flow forecasts from 10 to 50 percent contract duration.
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|Item Type:||Conference Paper|
|Keywords:||Expenditure flow models, forecasts, non, linear regression, cross validation|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 1993 (please consult author)|
|Deposited On:||21 Jun 2006|
|Last Modified:||09 Jun 2010 22:33|
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