Refinement of Storey Enclosure Forecasting Method
Cheung, Franco K.T. & Skitmore, Martin (2005) Refinement of Storey Enclosure Forecasting Method. In 49th Annual Meeting AACE International, 26-29 June 2005, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
Previous researches have suggested that there is only little improvement in the accuracy of building forecasts as design develops. It has been criticized that established conventional forecasting methods also lack measures of their own performance. An early stage price forecasting model, the Storey Enclosure Method developed by James in 1954, uses some physical measurements of buildings to estimate building prices. Although James’ Storey Enclosure Method (JSEM) is not a widely used model in practice, the model has been proved empirically, if rather crudely, to be a better model than other commonly used models. This paper describes some preliminary research to refine JSEM using regression techniques. Advanced features of the proposed model include the use of cross validation for reliability analysis that simulates how forecasts are produced in practice and a dual stepwise selection strategy that enhances the chance of identifying the best model. To precisely judge the performance of models, this paper suggests using bias and consistency with parametric and non-parametric statistical inferences.
Citation countsare sourced monthly fromand citation databases.
These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science generally from 1980 onwards.
Citations counts from theindexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.
Full-text downloadsdisplays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.
|Item Type:||Conference Paper|
|Keywords:||Cost Modelling, Forecasting Techniques, Regression Analysis|
|Subjects:||Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)|
|Divisions:||Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering|
|Copyright Owner:||Copyright 2005 AACE International|
|Copyright Statement:||Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.|
|Deposited On:||20 Jun 2006|
|Last Modified:||29 Feb 2012 23:10|
Repository Staff Only: item control page