The Raftery Curve

Skitmore, Martin (1996) The Raftery Curve. In Katavic, M. (Ed.) International Council for Building Research Studies and Documentation CIB W-55, 4-7 September 1996, Kaciceva, Croatia.


Raftery (1993) has suggested that project cost estimates be presented in the form of cumulative probability functions (Raftery Curves) rather than the current practice of single point estimates. This paper compares the Raftery Curves derived empirically for ten data sets gathered throughout the world. The most consistent feature of all the curves was found to be the shift associated with to the number of bidders entering bids for contracts. This is examined both in terms of bias and consistency. Contrary to some previous studies, no evidence was found of any trends related to the value size of projects.

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ID Code: 4547
Item Type: Conference Paper
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Cost, time, forecasting, probability, bidders, range estimates
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > BUILDING (120200) > Quantity Surveying (120203)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND DESIGN (120000) > ARCHITECTURE (120100)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering
Copyright Owner: Copyright 1996 (please consult author)
Deposited On: 20 Jun 2006 00:00
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2010 12:33

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