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Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Yu, Weiwei, Mengersen, Kerrie, Wang, Xiaoyu, Ye, Xiaofang, Guo, Yuming, Pan, Xiaochuan, & Tong, Shilu (2011) Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence. International Journal of Biometeorology.

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

Impact and interest:

19 citations in Scopus
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14 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 46566
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Elderly, Meta-analysis, Mortality, Systematic review, Temperature
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-011-0497-3
ISSN: 1432-1254
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (111705)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES (110000) > PUBLIC HEALTH AND HEALTH SERVICES (111700) > Epidemiology (111706)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Curriculum
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 Springer
Copyright Statement: The original publication is available at SpringerLink http://www.springerlink.com
Deposited On: 26 Oct 2011 08:57
Last Modified: 26 Mar 2013 19:54

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