Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

Baker, Philip, Sun, Jiandong, Morris, James, & Dines, Amanda (2011) Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia. Emerging infectious diseases, 17(9), pp. 1608-1614.

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At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.

Impact and interest:

5 citations in Scopus
5 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 48293
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Epidemiology
DOI: 10.3201/eid1709.102012
ISSN: 1080-6040
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 CDC
Deposited On: 29 Jan 2012 22:06
Last Modified: 27 May 2013 19:09

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