QUT ePrints

The probabilities of sex offender rearrest

Broadhurst, Roderic G. & Loh, Nini (2003) The probabilities of sex offender rearrest. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 13(2), pp. 121-139.

View at publisher

Abstract

Estimates of the probabilities of rearrest for sex offenders apprehended (n=2,785) in Western Australia between 1984 and 1994 are reported. Subjects on average were followed up for 5.7 years and assessed by criminal record, Aboriginality, bail status, age, occupation and penal intervention. Three criteria, rearrest for any, repeat sex or a violent offence are used to summarise the ‘careers’ of sex offenders. Overall ultimate probabilities of rearrest for any offence were 0.61, for a repeat sex offence 0.33 and for a violent offence 0.51. Probabilities of rearrest for non-Aboriginal offenders were lower for all definitions. Younger offenders, Aborigines and those with prior arrest for non-sex offences had higher probabilities for any or violent rearrest but older offenders tended to have higher probabilities of repeat sex offending. Community supervision and imprisonment significantly reduced the ‘rate’ or speed of rearrest. The utility of actuarial risk assessment for low probability high consequence events such as dangerous recidivism and the evaluation of penal interventions for criminal justice policy are discussed.

Impact and interest:

13 citations in Scopus
Search Google Scholar™

Citation countsare sourced monthly from Scopus and Web of Science® citation databases.

These databases contain citations from different subsets of available publications and different time periods and thus the citation count from each is usually different. Some works are not in either database and no count is displayed. Scopus includes citations from articles published in 1996 onwards, and Web of Science® generally from 1980 onwards.

Citations counts from the Google Scholar™ indexing service can be viewed at the linked Google Scholar™ search.

Full-text downloads:

839 since deposited on 08 Sep 2006
261 in the past twelve months

Full-text downloadsdisplays the total number of times this work’s files (e.g., a PDF) have been downloaded from QUT ePrints as well as the number of downloads in the previous 365 days. The count includes downloads for all files if a work has more than one.

ID Code: 4962
Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: sex offenders, recidivism, longitudinal study, actuarial risk assessment
DOI: 10.1002/cbm.535
ISSN: 1471-2857
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > LAW AND LEGAL STUDIES (180000)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Law
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons
Copyright Statement: The definite version is available on publication at www3.interscience.wiley.com
Deposited On: 08 Sep 2006
Last Modified: 11 Aug 2011 01:42

Export: EndNote | Dublin Core | BibTeX

Repository Staff Only: item control page