Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)?
Hu, Wenbiao, Williams, Gail, Phung, Hai, Birrell, Frances, Tong, Shilu, Mengersen, Kerrie, Huang, Xiaodong, & Clements, Archie (2012) Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)? Environment International, 45, pp. 39-43.
Background: Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has a significant public health impact. This study aimed to examine the effect of socio-ecological factors on the transmission of H1N1 in Brisbane, Australia.
Methodology: We obtained data from Queensland Health on numbers of laboratory-confirmed daily H1N1 in Brisbane by statistical local areas (SLA) in 2009. Data on weather and socio-economic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of H1N1 and independent factors and to determine its spatiotemporal patterns.
Results: Our results show that average increase in weekly H1N1 cases were 45.04% (95% credible interval (CrI): 42.63-47.43%) and 23.20% (95% CrI: 16.10-32.67%), for a 1°C decrease in average weekly maximum temperature at a lag of one week and a 10. mm decrease in average weekly rainfall at a lag of one week, respectively. An interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on H1N1 incidence was found (changes: 0.71%; 95% CrI: 0.48-0.98%). The auto-regression term was significantly associated with H1N1 transmission (changes: 2.5%; 95% CrI: 1.39-3.72). No significant association between socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA) and H1N1 was observed at SLA level.
Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that average weekly temperature at lag of one week and rainfall at lag of one week were substantially associated with H1N1 incidence at a SLA level. The ecological factors seemed to have played an important role in H1N1 transmission cycles in Brisbane, Australia. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
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|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Additional Information:||Export Date: 16 May 2012 Source: Scopus Article in Press CODEN: ENVID Language of Original Document: English Correspondence Address: Hu, W.; School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston Road, Herston, Qld. 4006, Australemail: firstname.lastname@example.org|
|Keywords:||Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive, H1N1, Socio-ecological factors|
|Divisions:||Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health|
Current > Schools > School of Mathematical Sciences
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Current > Schools > School of Public Health & Social Work
|Deposited On:||24 Oct 2012 10:41|
|Last Modified:||25 Oct 2012 08:42|
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