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An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Haque, Md. Mazharul, Washington, Simon, & Haworth, Narelle L. (2011) An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique. In 10th National Conference on Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion, 2-4 November 2011, Brisbane Convention & Exbihition Centre, Brisbane, QLD. (Unpublished)

Abstract

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis.

Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data.

Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections.

Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Impact and interest:

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ID Code: 50436
Item Type: Conference Item (Presentation)
Keywords: Crash risks, injury prevention, safety promotion
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > PSYCHOLOGY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES (170000)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > Institutes > Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation
Current > Schools > School of Psychology & Counselling
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 The Authors
Deposited On: 21 May 2012 08:36
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2013 18:30

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