Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Debnath, Ashim Kumar, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Haque, Md. Mazharul (2011) Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts. Journal of Navigation, 64(4), pp. 645-655.

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

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8 citations in Scopus
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6 citations in Web of Science®

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ID Code: 50702
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Navigational collision risk, Port fairways, Traffic conflicts, Binomial logistic model, Hierarchical regression
DOI: 10.1017/S0373463311000257
ISSN: 1469-7785
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MARITIME ENGINEERING (091100)
Divisions: Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2011 The Royal Institute of Navigation
Deposited On: 31 May 2012 22:10
Last Modified: 22 Mar 2013 16:21

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