Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Debnath, Ashim Kumar & Chin, Hoong Chor (2009) Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways. Transportation Research Record, 2100, pp. 68-75.

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Impact and interest:

7 citations in Scopus
5 citations in Web of Science®
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173 since deposited on 31 May 2012
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ID Code: 50705
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Navigational collision risk, Risk perception, Fairway, Harbor pilot, Hierarchical regression.
DOI: 10.3141/2100-08
ISSN: 0361-1981
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > MARITIME ENGINEERING (091100)
Divisions: Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2009 Transportation Research Board of the National Academies
Deposited On: 31 May 2012 22:05
Last Modified: 31 May 2012 22:24

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