Empirical analysis on relationship between traffic conditions and crash occurrences

Zheng, Zuduo (2012) Empirical analysis on relationship between traffic conditions and crash occurrences. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 43, pp. 302-312.

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This paper investigates relationship between traffic conditions and the crash occurrence likelihood (COL) using the I-880 data. To remedy the data limitations and the methodological shortcomings suffered by previous studies, a multiresolution data processing method is proposed and implemented, upon which binary logistic models were developed. The major findings of this paper are: 1) traffic conditions have significant impacts on COL at the study site; Specifically, COL in a congested (transitioning) traffic flow is about 6 (1.6) times of that in a free flow condition; 2)Speed variance alone is not sufficient to capture traffic dynamics’ impact on COL; a traffic chaos indicator that integrates speed, speed variance, and flow is proposed and shows a promising performance; 3) Models based on aggregated data shall be interpreted with caution. Generally, conclusions obtained from such models shall not be generalized to individual vehicles (drivers) without further evidences using high-resolution data and it is dubious to either claim or disclaim speed kills based on aggregated data.

Impact and interest:

4 citations in Web of Science®
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132 since deposited on 14 Jun 2012
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ID Code: 50891
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Additional Information: Paper presented in The Eighth International Conference on Traffic & Transportation Studies (ICTTS’2012) will be held in Changsha August 1–3, 2012
Additional URLs:
Keywords: Freeway Crash, Traffic Conditions, Traffic Characteristics
DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.04.103
ISSN: 1877-0428
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500)
Divisions: Past > QUT Faculties & Divisions > Faculty of Science and Technology
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2012 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in <Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences>. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, [VOL 43, (2012)] DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.04.103
Deposited On: 14 Jun 2012 22:20
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2012 08:13

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