Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Huang, Helai, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Haque, Md. Mazharul (2008) Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40(1), pp. 45-54.

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Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

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ID Code: 51200
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Injury Severity, Signalized Intersection, Hierarchical logistic model, Bayesian analysis
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.04.002
ISSN: 0001-4575
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2008 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in [Accident Analysis and Prevention]. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in [Accident Analysis and Prevention], [VOL 40, ISSUE 1, (2008)] DOI 10.1016/j.aap.2007.04.002
Deposited On: 28 Jun 2012 22:50
Last Modified: 22 Mar 2013 03:28

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