Empirical evaluation of alternative approaches in identifying crash hot spots

Huang, Helai, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Haque, Md. Mazharul (2009) Empirical evaluation of alternative approaches in identifying crash hot spots. Transportation Research Record, 2103, pp. 32-41.

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This study proposes a framework of a model-based hot spot identification method by applying full Bayes (FB) technique. In comparison with the state-of-the-art approach [i.e., empirical Bayes method (EB)], the advantage of the FB method is the capability to seamlessly integrate prior information and all available data into posterior distributions on which various ranking criteria could be based. With intersection crash data collected in Singapore, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the following six approaches for hot spot identification: (a) naive ranking using raw crash data, (b) standard EB ranking, (c) FB ranking using a Poisson-gamma model, (d) FB ranking using a Poisson-lognormal model, (e) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson model, and (f) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson (AR-1) model. The results show that (a) when using the expected crash rate-related decision parameters, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than does the naive ranking method, and (b) the FB approach using hierarchical models significantly outperforms the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hazardous sites.

Impact and interest:

37 citations in Scopus
29 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 51204
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Hot spot identification, Empirical Bayes method, Decision parameters, Log-normal model, Ranking methods
DOI: 10.3141/2103-05
ISSN: 0361-1981
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Deposited On: 29 Jun 2012 01:38
Last Modified: 22 Mar 2013 03:24

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