Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Haque, Md. Mazharul, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Huang, Helai (2010) Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 42(1), pp. 203-212.

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Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Impact and interest:

45 citations in Scopus
24 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 51205
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Bayesian inference, Hierarchical models, Motorcycle crashes, Four-legged intersections, T intersections
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.022
ISSN: 0001-4575
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2010 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in <Accident Analysis & Prevention>. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, [VOL 42, ISSUE 1, (2010)] DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.022
Deposited On: 29 Jun 2012 01:42
Last Modified: 23 Mar 2013 22:15

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