An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Haque, Md. Mazharul, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Debnath, Ashim Kumar (2012) An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models. Safety Science, 50(2), pp. 352-362.

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Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Impact and interest:

28 citations in Scopus
26 citations in Web of Science®
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ID Code: 51208
Item Type: Journal Article
Refereed: Yes
Keywords: Motorcycle safety, Log-linear model, Crash risks, Interactions, Night-time conspicuity
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.09.015
ISSN: 0925-7535
Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Faculty of Health
Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
Copyright Owner: Copyright 2012 Elsevier
Copyright Statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in <Safety Science>. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Safety Science, [VOL 50, ISSUE 2, (2012)] DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.09.015
Deposited On: 29 Jun 2012 01:51
Last Modified: 22 Jun 2017 22:07

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