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Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Huang, Helai, Chin, Hoong Chor, & Haque, Md. Mazharul (2008) Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models. In 87th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board (TRB), Transportation Research Board, Capital Hilton, Washington DC.

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      Abstract

      Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records.

      This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

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      ID Code: 51218
      Item Type: Conference Paper
      Keywords: Hierarchical regression model, Crash prediction, Bayesian analysis
      Subjects: Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (010000) > STATISTICS (010400) > Applied Statistics (010401)
      Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification > ENGINEERING (090000) > CIVIL ENGINEERING (090500) > Transport Engineering (090507)
      Divisions: Current > Research Centres > Centre for Accident Research & Road Safety - Qld (CARRS-Q)
      Current > Schools > School of Civil Engineering & Built Environment
      Current > QUT Faculties and Divisions > Science & Engineering Faculty
      Copyright Owner: Copyright 2008 [please consult the author]
      Deposited On: 29 Jun 2012 10:33
      Last Modified: 22 Mar 2013 22:15

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